Coronavirus and....weather forecasting?

"ttyymmnn" (ttyymmnn) 05/15/2020 at 10:20 • Filed to: wingspan, Planelopnik, Weatherlopnik

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The steep drop in aviation observations from various networks (WMO/Canadian Meteorological Center)

From the Department of Unanticipated Outcomes, we learn that one of the knock-on effects of the global cratering of the airline industry is a dramatic loss of enormous amounts of weather data that is collected by commercial aircraft.

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At the global level, networks that vacuum up data from planes flying in Europe, Asia and South America have helped to ensure an ever-growing flow of data that’s benefited modeling centers worldwide, boosting model skill and forecast accuracy.

However, with the paucity of flights in the air now, the pandemic has disrupted that data flow, turning it from a fire hose to more of a trickle. Meteorologists don’t know exactly how much of an impact that’s having on forecast skill.

Spanfeller is a twat > ttyymmnn 05/15/2020 at 10:29

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Its amazing how disruptive it was, most of the air-cargo arriving to Mexico City for instance was carried by passenger jets... I didn't imagine passenger jets did so much stuff

gin-san - shitpost specialist > ttyymmnn 05/15/2020 at 10:30

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That’s not something I was expecting.

I have zero knowledge of weather forecasting but I thought it was done with satellites and stuff.

Maybe it’s time to go back to good ol’ weather balloons!

ttyymmnn > gin-san - shitpost specialist 05/15/2020 at 10:32

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They still launch hundreds of weather balloons a day all over the world. They collect the same data that is collected by aircraft, but obviously, with so many aircraft in the air, the airliners collect vastly more data. Satellites can show you clouds and water vapor and stuff like that, but you still need more local data on wind speeds, pressures, etc. 

functionoverfashion > ttyymmnn 05/15/2020 at 10:41

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I’d heard about this because meteorology is a big deal (ish) at the university where I work. I’ve noticed some huge misses in forecasting where I would expect pretty good information before, like, in the timing of rain starting and stopping. And I don’t mean, forecast said rain at 3 and it comes at 4. More like, rain starting at noon and it doesn’t come until 9:30. 

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > ttyymmnn 05/15/2020 at 10:42

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Oh, that’s an unintended consequence.

Plus, I had a Chemtrail dependence and I’m in withdrawal.

ttyymmnn > functionoverfashion 05/15/2020 at 10:48

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The WaPo article leads with an example of a huge miss in a weather prediction in FL. This could be a very interesting storm season.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 05/15/2020 at 10:49

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Didn’t you hear it’s now being beamed into you in the 5g

ttyymmnn > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 05/15/2020 at 10:51

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Here, Captain Jack can get you high tonight .

Spanfeller is a twat > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 05/15/2020 at 10:53

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Ah, the chemtrail industry, another industry hit hard by automatization 

WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI > ttyymmnn 05/15/2020 at 11:00

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I read an article fairly early on during The Rona saying roughly the same thing, so I’ve been paying attention to weather app accuracy during the lockdown. Frankly it’s kind of funny how wildly i naccurate weather forecasts seemed to be during the first few weeks. Th ey seem to be more accurate again now.

bwp240 > ttyymmnn 05/15/2020 at 11:04

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This is correct. Weather balloons launch twice a day at 00 and 12 GMT . They collect lots of important data, but the spatial coverage and frequency cannot match that of airplanes. Plus airplanes really help us see what is happening over the oceans. https://www.aviationweather.gov/

The issue with satellites is that they look from the top down, so if there is a thick high cloud layer, we don’t get the best picture of what is below it . The latest generation of satellites can tune out some of the obstructions, but the data can still be a bit attenuated.  Current satellites are leaps and bounds better than the ones we had even 5 years ago.

Source: I forecast weather

ttyymmnn > WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI 05/15/2020 at 11:04

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Like all of us, the meteorologists are adjusting. Perhaps they’re going back to older methods of prediction rather than relying on computer models all the time. We’ve been predicting weather for many years before there were so many airliners in the air. 

Just Jeepin' > WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI 05/15/2020 at 11:05

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I wonder how much of the fix was  re- weighting the data, vs sending up more balloons or something. 

ttyymmnn > bwp240 05/15/2020 at 11:05

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Great explanation. Thanks!

functionoverfashion > ttyymmnn 05/15/2020 at 11:23

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Oh yeah, good point! That could be ... challenging. 

ttyymmnn > functionoverfashion 05/15/2020 at 11:33

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Well, if there’s a hurricane bearing down on the east coast we’ll know it’s there, the hurricane hunters will fly, etc. But my guess is that the cone of uncertainty will become much more uncertain .